The Polar Express
Dynamic Aggregation under Policy Holonomy
Research question
When does a low-dimensional organizational report remain sufficient for future responses after feasible policy cycles?
Abstract
A policy cycle can restore an aggregate report while changing the response to a later intervention. This paper studies that failure of dynamic aggregation. A feasible report path is lifted through a specified policy technology; the terminal change in a common future probe is target holonomy. Opposite loop orientations identify its local curvature, and the resulting response map describes which hidden directions require additional measurements. A phase-conditional Gorman representation gives local closure under an additive differential-frame condition. A 72-state transition economy illustrates the mechanism: a closed output–consumption loop changes a subsequent consumption response by up to 0.00714 percentage point, or 6.04 percent of its ordinary value. Public delivery records provide a separate predictive-closure exercise. Randomized loops and common terminal probes are the observation design for identifying the holonomy contrast.
In one sentence
A dashboard can return to exactly the same numbers after a policy cycle even though the organization underneath it has changed in ways that matter for the next shock.